A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC IN ARGENTINA USING THE SEIR MODEL

  • Patricia Gauzellino Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas, UNLP
  • Gabriela Savioli Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ingeniería, Instituto del Gas y del Petróleo.
  • José Carcione National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics - OGS, Trieste, Italy.
  • Juan Santos School of Earth Science and Technology, Hohai University, China; Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ingeniería, Instituto del Gas y del Petróleo, Argentina; Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, Indiana.
  • Alejandro Ravecca Universidad Nacional Arturo Jauretche, Argentina.
  • Alfredo Moras Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Keywords: COVID-19, SEIR model, reproduction ratio, fatality rate

Abstract

A pandemic caused by a new corona virus has spread worldwide, affecting Argentina. We implement an SEIR model to analyze the disease evolution in Buenos Aires and neighboring cities.
The model parameters are calibrated using the number of casualties officially reported. Since infinite solutions honor the data, we show different cases. In all of them the reproduction ratio R0 decreases
after early lockdown, but then raises, probably due to an increase in the community circulation of the virus. Therefore it is mandatory to reverse this growing trend in R0 by applying control strategies
to avoid a high number of infectious and dead individuals. The model provides an effective procedure to estimate epidemic parameters (fatality rate, transmission probability, infection and incubation
periods) and monitor control measures during the epidemic evolution.

Published
2021-06-27
Section
Control and Information Processing