Impacts of quantifying social distancing measures on MPC performance for SIR-type systems
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52292/j.laar.2023.3278Keywords:
Epidemiological models, Model predictive control, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Discrete control actionsAbstract
Currently, there has been a sharp increase in epidemic control research as a result of recent epidemic outbreaks. Several strategies aiming to minimize the Epidemic Final Size and/or to keep the Infected Peak Prevalence under a specific value were proposed.
However, not many strategies focused on analyzing the impact of applying quantified measures instead of continuous control action. This analysis is a crucial aspect since policymakers design their non-pharmaceutical intervention based on a discrete scale of intensity, from mask-wearing to hard lockdown.
In this work, we present a quantized-input non-linear Model Predictive Control strategy to manage non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic outbreak. The impact of quantifying the social distancing measure is computed through several simulations based on a COVID-19 epidemic model and considering different quantization levels of the non-pharmaceutical intervention. Finally, the control performance in each quantization level is evaluated with the computation of four epidemic indices.
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